(DFN Insights) — As the 2024 presidential campaign heats up, all eyes are on six critical battleground states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. New CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each of these states reveal a mixed and highly competitive landscape, with Georgia and Pennsylvania emerging as pivotal in determining the next President of the United States. The polling data underscores the unpredictable nature of this election and highlights the importance of undecided voters who could sway the outcome in these key states.
The State of Play: An Overview
The polls show Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slight advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona. In Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the race is a virtual tie, with both candidates capturing nearly equal support. This suggests a highly competitive environment where even small shifts in voter sentiment could determine the winner.
In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 44%, and in Michigan, she holds a 48% to 43% advantage. Trump, however, leads in Arizona, with 49% of likely voters supporting him compared to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, the margin is razor-thin, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. Pennsylvania, often considered the crown jewel of swing states, shows both candidates locked in a dead heat at 47%.
The Importance of Undecided Voters
One of the most striking findings from these polls is the significant portion of likely voters who remain undecided. On average, 15% of likely voters across these states have not yet firmly made up their minds. This level of uncertainty is crucial, as it indicates that the race is far from settled, and the final weeks of the campaign will be critical in swaying these voters.
Undecided voters often turn out to be the decisive factor in battleground states, and this election is no exception. As campaign activities intensify, particularly in these key states, both candidates will need to focus on appealing to these voters, who could ultimately tip the scales.
The Electoral College Landscape: Paths to Victory
The polling data suggests that Pennsylvania and Georgia are central to each candidate’s path to victory. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried all six of these states, winning Georgia by just under 12,000 votes and Arizona by a little over 10,000 votes. If Harris can hold onto Biden’s 2020 wins outside of these six states and secure victories in Wisconsin and Michigan, a win in Pennsylvania, combined with just one additional electoral vote, would give her the presidency.
On the other hand, Trump’s path to victory could be secured by holding North Carolina—a state he won in 2020—and winning both Georgia and Pennsylvania. In this scenario, victories in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Nevada would not be necessary for Trump to clinch another term. Arizona, where Trump currently holds a narrow lead, would also not be essential in this pathway.
This strategic calculus underscores the importance of Georgia and Pennsylvania, both of which remain fiercely contested. These states will likely see an influx of campaign resources and attention in the final weeks before Election Day.
Shifting Dynamics with Kamala Harris as the Nominee
The emergence of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee has altered some of the race’s dynamics. While economic issues remain at the forefront of voters’ concerns—chosen by an average of 39% of likely voters across these states as their top issue—Harris is trailing Trump on trust to handle the economy by an average of 8 points. This margin, however, is smaller than the 20-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in similar polls earlier this year.
Harris has built on Biden’s lead in areas such as abortion and reproductive rights, with women across these states favoring her by an average of 27 percentage points on the issue. However, Trump maintains a strong advantage on issues like immigration and crime, which resonate deeply with his base.
Voters in these battleground states also view Harris as more empathetic, with a slight edge in being seen as someone who cares about “people like you.” However, Trump is perceived by more voters as having clear policy plans to address the country’s problems, particularly in states like Arizona and Nevada.
Independent Voters: The Swing Factor
Independent voters, who often play a pivotal role in swing states, show a significant degree of uncertainty in this election. Roughly a quarter or more of independent likely voters across these states indicate that they could still change their minds. These voters are also more likely than others to believe that neither Harris nor Trump will unite the country or have clear policy plans to solve its problems.
The importance of independents cannot be overstated. Their votes could be the difference between victory and defeat in these closely contested states. Both campaigns will need to tailor their messages carefully to win over this crucial demographic.
The Role of Black Voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania
Black voters are a key demographic in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, particularly in Georgia, where they make up a significant portion of the electorate. Harris holds substantial support among Black likely voters—85% in Georgia and 84% in Pennsylvania. However, motivation among Black voters to turn out in this election appears lower than among White voters in these states.
In Georgia, only 61% of Black registered voters report being extremely motivated to vote, compared to 70% of White voters. In Pennsylvania, the gap is even wider, with 56% of Black voters expressing deep motivation to vote, compared to 72% of White voters.
This enthusiasm gap could have significant implications for Harris, who will need a strong turnout from Black voters to secure victories in these states. The final weeks of the campaign will likely see efforts to boost voter turnout among this critical demographic.
Gender Gaps and Suburban Women
The polls also reveal significant gender gaps in voter preferences. Harris leads by double digits among female likely voters in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Trump has similarly large leads among male likely voters. Harris’ advantage is even more pronounced among suburban women, who have emerged as a key swing demographic in recent elections.
In Georgia, Harris leads Trump by 16 points among suburban women, and in Pennsylvania, she has an 18-point advantage. These numbers highlight the importance of suburban women in deciding the election’s outcome, particularly in these two battleground states.
Challenges in Arizona and Nevada
While Harris holds leads in some key states, Arizona presents a more challenging landscape. Trump holds a narrow lead overall, and Harris appears to be struggling to regain support among several key Democratic groups, including Latino voters, younger voters, and White voters with college degrees.
In Nevada, Harris performs better among Latino likely voters, leading 57% to 37%, but in Arizona, the race is much closer, with Harris holding a slim 49% to 43% lead. White voters in both states favor Trump by double-digit margins, further complicating Harris’ path to victory in these southwestern battlegrounds.
The gender gap in Arizona is also smaller than in other states, with women almost evenly split between the two candidates. This tight race in Arizona, coupled with the even contest in Nevada, suggests that both states will be fiercely contested until the last vote is counted.
The Independent Candidates and Senate Races
The presence of independent and third-party candidates, while not commanding large shares of the vote, could still play a role in the election’s outcome. In a close race, even small percentages can make a difference, particularly in battleground states where the margins are tight.
The Senate races in these states also offer a more favorable outlook for Democrats, with incumbents leading in Nevada and Wisconsin. However, some races, such as those in Arizona and Pennsylvania, remain too close to call, reflecting the broader competitive environment of this election cycle.
Conclusion: The Final Stretch
As the 2024 presidential campaign enters its final stretch, the race remains highly competitive across the key battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. With significant portions of the electorate still undecided, and independent voters showing a high degree of uncertainty, both campaigns have their work cut out for them in the weeks ahead.
Georgia and Pennsylvania, in particular, will be crucial to determining the next occupant of the White House. The candidates’ ability to sway undecided voters, motivate their base, and appeal to key demographics such as Black voters and suburban women will likely determine the election’s outcome.
In this closely contested race, every vote will count, and the final outcome may well hinge on the results in these critical battleground states. As campaign activities intensify and Election Day approaches, the nation will be watching closely to see who will emerge victorious in the fight for the presidency.
